Bitcoin's bloodbath continues.

Crypto's biggest bellwether usually rallies in the fall. But not this year, as worries about the U.S. economy are exacting a steep toll.

By Peter A. McKay | About | Follow: Email: peter[at]pmckay[dot]com
A physical bitcoin token surrounded by gold nuggets
Photo by Kanchanara via Unsplash

  • Below is the latest edition of w3w, my free newsletter about emerging technology, including AI, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more . If you would like to receive it in your inbox every Sunday, please subscribe here.

Turns out the market plunge that bitcoiners dubbed "Red October" has spilled into November as well, fueled by rising worries about the U.S. economy.

Some highlights:

  • On Tuesday, bitcoin briefly traded below $100,000 per token for the first time since May. (Investopedia)
  • Heading into Monday's trading session on Wall Street, U.S.-listed bitcoin funds have seen net outflows of investor money in seven out of eight trading days. That includes $558 million pulled on Friday alone. (The Block)
  • Bitcoin fell nearly 5% in October, its first decline for that month since 2018. So far this month, the token has already shed another 5%. (Reuters)
  • Bitcoin's plunge has prompted some firms, including crypto stalwarts Galaxy Digital and ARK Invest, to trim their long-term price forecasts for the token. (TheStreet)
  • But JPMorgan analysts are a notable exception, viewing the selloff as a buying opportunity. In a Wednesday report, the bank's analysts forecast that bitcoin could climb to $170,000 over the next 6-12 months, based on the token's volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.

As an old commodities reporter, I have to say that comparison to the yellow metal is of particular interest to me right now. More on that in next week's letter.

Week in Review: Nov. 2-8, 2025

  • Stablecoins, stablecoins everywhere: A senior British central banker urged closer collaboration between the U.K. and America on stablecoin regulation... Italy's biggest banks said they support the European Central Bank's plan for a digital euro. But they want to spread costs out over time... Polygon and fintech startup Anq are developing a digital rupee token pegged to Indian government securities... In emerging markets, where changing local currencies to U.S. dollars is a daily routine, current trends suggest local banks could lose as much as $1 trillion in deposits to stablecoin usage by the end of 2028, according to analysts at Standard Chartered Bank.
  • Renowned "Big Short" financier Michael Burry disclosed a $1.1 billion bet against AI darlings Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, citing concerns over market bubbles and "circular financing" in the tech industry. (Decrypt)
  • Public filings show OpenAI submitted an 11-page letter to the U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy seeking government loan guarantees to expand its infrastructure. The document effectively contradicts recent public statements by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman denying that the company wants government backing.
  • Crypto treasury companies have stumbled hard lately as Wall Street has backed away from riskier market bets. Companies like Michael Saylor's Strategy and Peter Thiel's BitMine Immersion Technologies have seen their shares decline by up to 30% in the past month. (Wall Street Journal)
  • Columbia University researchers say a quarter of trades on Polymarket, a popular prediction platform, may be the result of "wash trading." The practice entails users artificially inflating activity to qualify for rewards. (Decrypt)

Market Snapshot

A quick look at some major indicators as of Friday's close on Wall Street:

Indicator Close Weekly YTD
Bitcoin $103,746.35 -5.5% +10.5%
Gold $4,009.80/oz +0.7% +52.5%
USD Index 99.56 -0.2% -8.2%
10-yr U.S.
Treasury Yield
4.0930% -0.008 -0.480
Nasdaq 100 25,059.81 -3.1% +19.3%
MSCI All-Country
World Index (ex US)
1,072.18 -1.0% +27.9%

Looking Ahead

  • Ahead of this week's COP30 climate summit, Bill Gates urged world leaders to shift focus from hitting near-term targets for emission reductions. Instead, Gates says it would be better to focus on limiting climate-related suffering, especially among people in the world's poorest countries.
  • Consulting giant McKinsey & Co. published a major new global survey on enterprise AI adoption. Among the findings: 88% of organizations now report using AI in at least one business function. But most are still struggling to scale AI programs beyond early experimentation.
  • The Guardian's TechScape newsletter highlighted some recently reported market stats that demonstrate the truly dizzying financial scale of the AI boom. Behold Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation, Microsoft and Apple at $4 trillion each, Alphabet's first-ever quarter with $100 billion in revenue, and $600 billion in newly announced deals to expand computing capacity. Yowza.

Odds & Ends

  • Tesla shareholders approved an all-stock compensation package for CEO Elon Musk that could make him the world's first trillionaire if he can steer the company to hit specific milestones over the next decade. All he needs to do now is boost the share price so Tesla becomes nearly twice as valuable as the largest public company ever traded to date; successfully pivot Tesla's revenue model away from the capital-intensive aspects of being a carmaker; do so while splitting time across several other ventures that provide zero value to Tesla, including occasionally playing de facto co-president of the United States and running X, which also occupies an inordinate amount of his time by dint of his posting to it all damn day long; and avoid dying before the decade is up from his voluminously well-documented drug habit, à la actor Matthew Perry.
  • Color me skeptical the above scenario will go as the Teslans hope, of course. But hey. Glad to check back on the situation later, whether I'm proven right or wrong.

That's it for now. Thanks for reading the newsletter today! If you want to know more about w3w's history and (ahem) the author, that info is available here.

Please note, I regularly use several AI apps to assist production of w3w. But the final edit is 100% by me. For fuller detail, see the newsletter's commit history on GitHub.

If you need to reach me directly, please email peter[at]w3w[dot]media.

Best wishes for a healthy and productive week ahead. 😊